full image - Repost: Do you disagree with this thinking? (from Reddit.com, Do you disagree with this thinking?)
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I understand assumptions are bad, I am not a prophet, and we have no idea what the future holds. This is nonetheless a fun exercise, and I would be interested in hearing what people think. Please, I am not trying to predict the price, it is just an exiting task.Assumption is that the following are somewhat constant:Demand for bitcoinsHashrateEnergy pricesHardware costsIn 2044, the mining reward will be ~0.0977 BTC. With the above assumptions, 1 bitcoin should be worth ~$1,000,000 then.In 2056, the mining reward will be ~0.0122 BTC. With the above assumptions, 1 bitcoin should be worth ~$10,000,000.Thinking:As far as I can tell, the above four factors are more or less what dictate the value of the mining reward in fiat terms, which is currently, ~$125,000.Bitcoin price = Mining reward in dollars / mining reward in bitcoinsAnd, the four factors are all likely to go up, rendering the above numbers quite bearish.
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